On October 15, 2005, Iraqi citizens voted on a referendum for a new constitution. The citizens of Iraq voted (78%) for the new constitution. Independent auditors have stated that there is no indication of massive voter fraud. Some Sunnis are, nonetheless, upset with the result.

That said, what does this mean?

It definitely means that Iraq has a new legal constitution and will have general elections in December to elect a new government. One could say a permanent government, but that will depend on how well this new government does and whether some military strongman comes in and overthrows it, but the intent is that this will be a long-term government. What can be said is that the new government will have the trappings of a representative system (similar to other representative republics in the world, democracy as a poor shorthand).

Do you see this as progress?

The Iraqi government will come into office with huge difficulties (not uncommon for any new government). They have an insurgency to deal with. They have services to restore (utilities, roads, etc.). They have potentially hostile neighbors on two borders (Syria and Iraq). Still, there is cause for optimism. The population of Iraq appears to be willing to accept the new government and even support it (78% to 22% is not a "close" election or a marginal victory). The Iraqi military is growing and there is no shortage of volunteers. It appears that the Iraqis really want to establish their nation as their own.

The march towards the new government will move inexorably on. Unless the insurgents can somehow stop the December elections, they will be facing a legitimate Iraqi government and will no longer be able to claim that they are fighting an occupying force, but rather will be fighting the legitimate government of the nation of Iraq (technically, they've been doing so since June 28, 2004, but that's another discussion).

What do you think?

-- Jeff

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"Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem." --Ronald Reagan